Saturday, September 15, 2007

Another FANTASTIC Day

For those of you who have a sliver of my WCOOP action I'm sorry to say that the good poker news I have is not WCOOP related. In fact I dropped another $161 playing satellites to Sunday's $530 event.

But I did have a major result in the Supernova Freeroll. For those of you who don't know Supernova refers to my level of VIP status on pokerstars. There are 6 levels: bronze, sliver, gold, platinum, supernova and supernova elite. The lower 4 levels are based on the amount that you play in a given month and the top two are based on how much you play in a calender year. Of the 9 million people who have pokerstars accounts there are less than 10 who are supernova elite and I am one of the 1,500 or so players who are regular supernova. There are a variety of perks associated with each level but the one that matters as far as this post goes is the supernova freeroll.

Every Saturday at 11 am Pokerstars puts up a $50,000 prize pool for players who are supernova to fight over. The tournament has no entry fee and usually draws 750-1,000 players. I've had great success in the past in this tournament and I think I've made the money over 30% of the times that I've played (it might even be closer to 40%).

I suspect that the main reason for my success is that while all of the players are VERY experienced poker players, most of them are not multitable no limit hold 'em tournament specialists. The reason I suspect this is it would be almost impossible to earn enough points to become a supernova playing multitable tournaments. Probably at least half of the players are cash game players and most of the rest are SNG players. While they've almost certainly all played some NL hold'em, playing big tournaments is a very different skill set.

Now on to the point! Today we started with 923 players and as per usual I figured I'd have a better than average chance to pick up at least the free $80 that comes with a finish of 162nd or higher. I managed to double my 1,500 starting stack to 3,000 in the first 15 minutes, but struggled for a long time after that.

I was having trouble in the other tournaments I was playing and kept going broke with pairs to over cards. So when I moved my short stack all in with 44 with about 250 players left and got called by AQ I was thinking I was due for a winner. But an ace came on the flop and I went from a 53% favorite to a 10-1 underdog. Another A on the turn felt like the universe was just rubbing it in, but a 4 on the river saved the day!

I was in OK shape after that and when we hit the money I was right about average with around 8,000 chips. Then I really made some headway. I picked up AA and someone moved all in in front of me. After adding a few stolen blinds to proceeds of that pot I my stack ballooned to over 25,000.

A short while later I faced a major decision. With blinds of 600/1200 I raised to 3,600 from the button with AK of clubs. The player in the big blind had over 30,000 chips and to my surprise reraised all in! If he had a pair (which I thought was very likely) I would be a small underdog. But if he had a hand like AQ or AJ I would be about a 3-1 favorite. I figured with AA or KK (the only hands I really feared) he would have made a smaller raise or just called so I probably wasn't in terrible shape. While I didn't like risking my entire stack (that was more than twice average) on one hand, if you're going to go deep sometimes you just have to go for it. I called, my opponent showed AQ and my hand held up.

I vaulted into 3rd place overall and was one good pot away from 1st. I stayed patient, watched a little golf and let my opponents bust each other. If I got a good hand, I played and won. I managed to avoid any tough decisions and by the time we were down to about 35 players I had 80,000 chips while the average stack was close to 40,000.

Then I went card dead. I kept getting total garbage and at an aggressive table there wasn't much room to maneuver. I slowly saw my strong stack melt away. But, my opponents were still dropping and I was moving up the pay levels. 19th-27th paid $200, 14th to 18th paid $335 and 10 to 13th paid $445. We were stalled at 17 players for what felt like an eternity and almost everyone in the whole tournament had relatively equal chip stacks. Then 4 people went broke in a matter of 10 hands. Then 3 more went down in the following 20 hands. In what felt like a very short time we were playing at two tables of 5.

I was in dead last when we started playing 10 handed. I'd managed to keep my head above water picking up the blinds here and there, but I was constantly in danger of going broke. At my worst with blinds of 3000/6000 and a 300 chip ante I was down to 35,000 chips while the average had shot up to 138,000.

I moved all in with 87 of spades and stole the blinds and then I got a walk in the big blind so I was left with just under 50,000 on the button when the blinds went up to 4000/8000. The player to my right raised to 24,000 and I found myself with 88. "Hmmmmmmm" I thought. My first thought was "I have to call here. I'd be crazy to fold 88 at a 5-way table."

This was a key hand and for once I took my time making a decision. I was 100% sure I'd get called if I moved all in and I decided I might be able to find a spot where I was in better shape or someone else might go broke if I waited a few more hands. Folding was kind of a weak play and I think it was probably a mistake, but that's what I did.

Luckily I caught a break a few hands later. The next time I was on the button with my stack almost exactly the same size, the same player raised to 24,000 and I moved all in with A8. I'd been thinking about the hand where I had 88 and had come to the conclusion that I made a mistake. Even though my hand was weaker this time I decided to go for it. My opponent called with K2 and after nothing of significance showed up I took the pot.

I was in better shape, but no one else was really hurting. We’d been playing 10 handed for over 40 hands when I caught a big break on a key hand. I picked up A9 and was second to act with about 60,000 in chips and blinds still at 4000/8000. I moved all in and got called by a player who had about 90,000 chips. I knew I was in trouble and when he turned over AT (a 3-1 favorite over my hand) I saw a 10th place finish in my future.

The flop came down with nothing. I hoped the board would pair on the turn so at least I’d have a chance to split the pot. When the turn came out I saw that there were 3 spades on board and I had the only spade. I called out loud for a spade and then I saw the river. It was a 9!

I was up to over 130,000 and my opponent was left with around 30,000. On the next hand my crippled foe folded, but on the hand after that he moved all in. Everyone folded to me in the big blind. The blinds had gone up to 6000/12000 and I was forced to call with T7 of hearts since I was only risking about 18,000 to win a little over 50,000. My opponent had Q8, I managed to make a flush, we were down to 9, and I had almost 170,000 chips!

Getting to the final table took forever, but once we were there things moved along quickly. 9th paid $720 and when the first player went down I was guaranteed $1,100. Before I new it we’d lost the 8th place player and the 7th place player who got $1,500.

I was making nice headway at the final table. The blinds had gone up to 10,000/20,000 and I kept getting hands like KQ and AJ that were perfect for raising. Around this point I had 240,000 and the player to my right moved all in for 120,000. I had AJ in my hand which I easily could have called with. But I decided I might be able to find a better spot and I didn't want to risk half of my stack. I folded and a player behind me who had me covered called with AA and won the pot. If I'd played the hand I would have reraised the initial raiser and slammed head first into those pocked aces. I would have been forced to call a raise and would have gone broke. It turned out that the initial raiser had 98 of clubs and got paid $1,950 for 6th place.

A few hands later I had my stack up to 300,000 and I picked up AA in the big blind. As soon as I saw my cards my heart rate went up as I hoped someone would give me action. Aces are so powerful because NO MATTER WHAT you're opponent has you'll win 80% of the time against one player. To my delight the first player to act who had about 200,000 chips moved all in!

I instantly called and saw that he had 88. The flop came down 976 which was about the worst flop that didn’t have an 8 on it that I could imagine. But there were two spades and I had the ace of spades. Wanting a spade to kill some of my opponents outs I called out loud for the king of spades. BANG! The king of spades came on the turn! The river was a blank and my opponent took home $$2,450 for 5th place.

I stole the blinds one more time and was up over 600,000 chips (400 times the 1500 chip stack that I started the tournament with). On the next hand one of my opponents busted another who got $3,000 for 4th place. I was up agaisnt two players who had 200,000 and 590,000 chips and I decided to suggest making a deal. Happily they were both receptive.

3rd place paid $3950, 2nd place was $6,300 and 1st was $10,150 so there was a big pile of cash to split up. I e-mailed support and 60 seconds later there was a Pokerstars representative there to help us with the deal. We decided to split the remaining money based on chip count and once again since I had the most chips I got the most money. When the math was done my end was $7,670!!!!

I could have fought it out and gone for the $10,000+ 1st prize, but I also could have ended up with less than $4,000 for finishing in 3rd. I figured locking up an extra $3,700 was the way to go.

This is my biggest win since early 2006 and the 6th biggest win of my career. Not bad for a tournament that cost me zero dollars to enter! The timing couldn’t be better and I couldn’t be happier about my win.

Friday, September 14, 2007

An Early Exit

I ran my starting stack of 3,000 up to 4,500 early by winning a series of small pots, but after losing chips about 500 at a time with 99, AK and AQ I found myself back under 3,000. I slowly dribbled off more chips and found myself with just over 2,000 chips about and hour and 20 minutes into the tournament.

Then I picked up TT on the button and the first player to act raised the 50 chip big blind to 175. Two other players called which was uncharacteristic for our table. It was up to me next. I was most worried about the initial raiser since he could have a big hand. Since the other two players just called it was unlikely that they had a pair above TT. On the previous hand the initial raiser won a pot going all in on the flop with 66 one pair against another player who missed a draw so I knew he could have a small pair which would be the best case scenario for me.

I thought about just calling, but up against 3 opponents unless I hit a T on the flop I was probably done. There was 600 in the pot and I figured if I moved all in I would almost certainly win right there and increase my stack by 30%. Also I thought there was some chance I might get called by an underpair which would be perfect.

So I moved all in and instantly got called by the initial raiser. Yikes! When the cards got turned over and I saw that he had AK I was pretty happy. I thought with the speed that he called I was probably up against a big pair. I was about 55% to win the pot before the flop, but an A came on the flop and with no help on the turn or the river I was out in about 3,490th place.

My Next WCOOP event will be $215 Limit Hold'em on Tuesday at noon.

And We're Off!

Event #1 Started with 4,610 players and a total prize pool of $922,000. Just to give you an idea of some of the payouts. 1st place pays $172,875, 5th is $18,901, 12th is $6,454, 138th is $1,198 and 534th (the edge of the money) pays $369. I'll let you know what happened when it's over.

A Massive Flaw in the Plan and a few WCOOP Satellites

My quest for TLB supremecy has been totally derailed. Jake discovered while reading up on the TLB rules that only my top 10 results for a given week count towards the weekly TLB. ACK! I can't say that I'm really surprised or disappointed. This is certainly a case of if it sounds too good to be true then it probably is.

Of course I never would have played the $11, 1870 player tournament that I won without this little scheme so in the end it turned out to be wildly profitable!

This morning I played 6 WCOOP satellites. 3 of them were $8 with rebuys to win $215 seats, one was a $39 satellite to a $215 seat and two more were $16 double shootouts to win $530 seats. For those of you who don't know a shootout is when you start a tournament with many tables and each table plays until one player at that table has all the chips. Then the winners of each table come together and play at a new table. So for example, today in my $16 double shootout we started with 36 players split into 6 tables of 6. The 6 winners of the initial 6 tables then come together and play and the winner of that table gets the $530 entry. Of course the odds of you winning both your first table and the final table are slim (1 in 36 for the average player), but you get a shot at $530 for a $16 investment.

This style of tournament really suits my game since I've played so many SNG's, but for some reason I don't really seem to enjoy it despite some past success. In fact the first time I played a shootout the only reason I did so was because my friend Matt offered me a deal I couldn't refuse.
He offered to put up all the money and give me 25% of the profits in an 81 player $109 double shootout. Unlike in the satellite version I described above this was not a winner take all payout structure and the top 9 spots paid much like they would in a normal multitable tournament.

Since I was only getting a quarter of the profits of course I won the damn thing which made me about $600 and Matt about $1,800. To his credit Matt did take Jen and I out the next day and shelled out a big chunk of that $1,800 to buy us each a set of golf clubs as a wedding present. What a guy.

So what happened in my 6 satellites? Well when I started writing this post it looked like I was going to get shut out. But in my last of the $8 with rebuys I managed to pull out a victory. This means I'm ahead $72.60 so far in the WCOOP! Yep looks like it's time to retire.

More results coming later today.

Thursday, September 13, 2007

Hitting the Tournament Leaderboard and a Big Win

Yesterday I started my mini quest to win the Pokerstars weekly tournament leader board (TLB) by playing as many $12, 180 entrant tournaments as possible. I ran into a little difficulty early both in terms of luck and logistics. It turns out that around 9 am the tournaments in question only go off about every 15 minutes so it's impossible to play the volume that I'd hoped. But I made up some of the slack by playing in a few other tournaments which turned out to be a VERY good idea.

I ended up playing 21 of the 180 player tournaments and had 4 money finishes and 1 final table, but the most significant result by far came in an $11 tournament that started with 1,870 players. I played in this tournament because it had 10 minute limits so while it would be slower than the turbo 180 player flavor, it would be much faster than a normal tournament with 15 minute limits. Also in going for TLB points it makes sense to play against the weaker competition at the low levels.

I had a fair run of luck to start and when we got down to about 60 people (remember we started with almost 1,900 so 60 left is pretty far into it) my chip stack was about 2/3 of average. I caught a few breaks, made some good plays and before I knew it we were down to two tables. I caught some more breaks, busted a few people and found that with 14 players left I was in 2nd place overall and the chip leader at my table with about 300,000 chips (we started the tournament with 1,500 so this was a real accomplishment).

This is when I really went to work. No one else at my table had more than 200,000 and they were all doing whatever they could to just survive to the final table. I raised about half of the hands, gradually accumulated chips and ground down my opponents. I knew I couldn't go broke on any one hand and I had to do whatever I could to make it to the top few spots. 18-10th places only paid $140 and 9th was a paltry $250 while 4th was over $1,000, 3rd was $1,550, 2nd was $2,500 and 1st was $4,100. Clearly it's worth taking some chances for a shot a the top spots.

When we got down to 9 players I was in 3rd place and I did my best to keep the pressure on my opponents who were all trying to hang on since every time a player was eliminated they'd be guarenteed an extra few hundred dollars.

My chips stack went up and down a little more than I'd like, but when we made it to 6 handed I caught a MAJOR break. I was in the small blind with about 500,000 chips, the short stack was on the button with about 120,000 chips and the big stack was in the big blind with 700,000 chips. The blinds were something like 15,000/30,000 and the short stack moved all in from the button. I had JJ and moved all in over the top. The big stack instantly called and I figured I was screwed. Sure enough he had AA. SHIT!

The other player had 33 and I thinking about the fact that at least I'd finish in fifth (which paid about $900) if we both went broke. Then...BOOM! J on the flop! I was up to 1.2 million in chips and in total control. The player who I'd just crippled went broke on the next hand and we were down to 3 players.

We played 3 handed for what felt like forever. Myself and one of the other players wanted to make a deal and split up the remaining prize money based on chip count (if you e-mail support they'll come to the table and make any deal official and handle the money), but the third player wasn't interested.

In fact the third player was totally nuts. On one hand he just called in the small blind (the blinds were 25,000/50,000) and I moved all in for 550,000 in the big blind with A8. He instantly called with J7! Luckily I won that hand, but I wanted to lock up as much money as I could rather than play 3 handed for some serious bucks against a totally unpredictable opponent.

He was so unpredictable that I just decided to be crazy aggressive when I got a good hand and hoped he made a mistake. At one point I had about 1,000,000, the nut job had about 1,100,000 and the other guy had about 600,000. The blinds were still 25,000/50,000 and I was first to act. I picked up 77 and moved all in. Normally this would be a major over bet (in this case it was certainly a minor over bet), but I thought he might call with a weak ace or an under pair (he'd risked all of his chips earlier with KT so it wasn't too much of a stretch).

It turned out that he did have a pair and sadly it was 88. He called, I swore and I knew I was pretty much done. The flop came with 3 spades and I had the 7 of spades (while my opponent had no spades) which brought a glimmer of hope. And then the turn came a 4th spade! AH HA! Take that you bastard! The river was a 7 (which I didn't need) and I took down the pot. I busted him a few hands later.

Now it was time to talk deal. We e-mailed support and a person showed up at the table in less than a minute. I'm pretty sure as a supernova my e-mails are flagged and I get priority service because that is just amazing.

After a little back and forth we agreed to a split roughly based on chip count and since I had most of the chips I got most of the money. My end was $3,620!!!!! That's some serious dough for an $11 investment!

We had to play it out for TLB points and I won that part too. I picked up about 900 points for that one tournament and at the end of the day found myself in 7th place on the weekly TLB about 700 points out of 1st! Today I'm continuing to generate more points and I like my chances of winning the TLB. I have until the end of Saturday and I'll keep you posted on my progress.

Also WCOOP starts tomorrow at noon pacific with $215 NL Hold 'em 6-handed. I'll certainly let you know what happens as far as that goes.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Hijacking the Pokerstars Tournament Leader Board

Bear with me through a little background here, because the point of this post is VERY interesting (I think). Pokerstars has a weekly, monthly, and yearly tournament leader board (TLB) where the names of the players who have consistently done well in multitable tournaments are proudly displayed. While the monthly and yearly contests inexplicably have no prizes, the weekly winner gets a chance to play one of the "Team Pokerstars" celebrities (usually one of the 4 former world champions that endorse Pokerstars) heads up for a minimum of $1,000. If the celebrity wins the money carries over to the next week where another $1,000 is added. This continues until the TLB player wins and takes the cash.

So how do results in tournaments turn into the points with which the players are ranked on the TLB? It's really quite simple. Actually it's not. They use this ridiculous formula which spits out a point value for any result in the top 15% of finishers (I'll explain more below so don't bother trying to figure out what's going on with the formula).

Points = 10 * [sqrt(n)/sqrt(k)] * [1+log(b+0.25)]

Where:

n is the number of entrants
k is the place of finish (k=1 for the first-place finisher, and so on)
b is the buy-in amount in dollars (excluding administrative fee). For freerolls the buy-in is $0, and for FPP tournaments 1 FPP is counted as $0.05.

Basically what's going on is they use the tournament buy-in, the number of entrants and your finishing place to determine how many points you get. Bigger buy in or more entrants means more points.

You might think that since the best players play for the most money, buy in should be weighted most heavily. After all if you really want to know who the best players are, the best way to figure that out is to look at who has the best results at the highest levels. But it turns out that the effect of all those square roots and and logs is to make buy in much less significant than you might think. If it was linear you'd get 10 times as many points for winning a 100 player $200 buy in tournament than you would winning a 100 player $20 tournament. In fact you get 330 points for the former and 230 points for the latter. Clearly buy in is barely a factor at all.


The number of entrants makes a big impact, but it's also similarly deflated by the math. You get 230 for that 100 player $20 tournament, but you'd only get 729 for a $20 tournament with 1,000 players.

The place you finish is the last factor variable that determines how many points you get and while there's a drop off from 1st on down it's also not as big as you might guess. In our same $20 100 player tournament you'd get 230 for 1st, 163 for 2nd, 73 for 10th and 59 for 15th (out of the top 15% is zero).

If you put it all together you can see that the most important thing is to have a shit load of finishes in the top 15%.

So what does all this mean and what's the point? Well the point is if I play a slew of those $12 180 player turbo tournaments that I kicked ass in last Sunday I should be able to win the tournament leader board almost every week!

Pokerstars offers a little calculator that you can use to determine how many points you'd get for a given result in a given tournament and I looked at how many points every place in the top 15% (or the top 27 spots) generates. If I were to play 180 tournaments in a week and finish in places 1-27 exactly one time each I'd accumulate 2484 points. I'm certain I could do this much.

The tournaments take about an hour and 45 minutes to play to conclusion, but of course that's only if you take them all the way to the end. Conservatively, I would say on average each one might take me 45 minutes. So playing 6 at a time I could play 72 in an 8 hour day. But there's a little delay getting into 6 tournaments and a little down time at the end while you're waiting for your final tournaments to end and while they seem to be starting every 10 minutes there aren't as many as I want just waiting to be played so we'll call it 60 a day.

So if I play 60 a day, 6 days a week we've got 360 tournaments. If I was dead on average in terms of skill level (which we sure as hell know I'm not) and I had an average run of luck I'd generate 4968 points. The winner of the weekly TLB last week only had 3,293 points! In fact the person who had the most points in the entire month of August only had 6,980 points.

I suspect that since I'll usually be the absolute best and certainly always in the top 5 of the 180 players playing I can do quite a bit better than the average number of points I used for my calculations above.

So what now? Well this week the TLB leader from last week is playing the heads up match for $3,000. If he loses it means that next week, this weeks TLB winner will be playing for $4,000. Right now the weeks leader has 2,600 points, but what happens every week is the top players in the Sunday Million ($215 buy in, 7,000 players is a lot of points) jump to the top of the leader board and don't go much further. I've got about 1,000 points just from screwing around on Sunday and I've got 4 days left in the week, so I might go for it this week.

If everything I've calculated is correct I should be able to win almost every week until they stop running the $12 180 player tournaments or change the system. If either is the case I'll no doubt gain some degree of fame from the whole thing. At the very least I'm going to go balls to the wall tomorrow and see how many I can play and what my results are. I won another $500 today so I'm feeling pretty good about my play.

Monday, September 10, 2007

It's About Time!

A week ago my Pokerstars account was on total fumes and I was making plans to get my hands on some cash so I could switch to playing in person for a while. Then I actually ran into some good luck!

On Saturday I won about $700 playing a mix of SNG's and cash games and on Sunday I was planning to watch football all day and play a few low limit multitables. I saw that they just started running these turbo (meaning they have 5 minute limits and go three times as fast as the normal 15 minute limit tournaments) $12 buy in tournaments that start as soon as 180 players sign up.

One of these was going off about every 15 minutes and I thought they would be perfect since they were going to be low stress and require limited if any concentration. I was hoping to win something like $50 or $100. Nothing major, but enough money to pay for a dinner out. Anything would be a bonus since it felt like a day off sitting on the couch.

In the first one I played I dominated from the start (I'm great at beating players who totally suck) and when we made it to the money (with 18 players left) I was in 2nd place. I navigated my way through the rest of the field and found myself with a small chip lead playing three handed. I figured I'd have a good chance to finish it off, but with blinds of 5000/10,000 and only 270,000 chips total in play I knew it would be a bit of a crap shoot.

Before I knew it I lost two hands and I was out! Crap! 3rd place paid $235 which is a ton considering I only had to risk $12 to get it, but 2nd was about $400 and 1st paid $600 so I was still a little disappointed.

But all was not lost. I was in another tournament of the exact same style that I'd started about 45 minutes later. I picked up some good hands and made some strong plays and before I knew it I was in the chip lead with about 30 players left. Once again I made it to the final table and before I knew it I was playing 3 handed again! I thought to myself "I am going to be crazy pissed if I finish in third again!"

At one point I was forced to risk all of my chips on a marginal hand, but I managed to get the cards I needed and survive. Luckily I was up against two weak passive players and I managed to grind them into dust with little difficulty. By the time we were down to 2 players I had a 6 to 1 chip advantage and finished off my last opponent in about 5 hands.

But there's more! I made a third final table finishing in 8th place in my next attempt! If poker was all luck and everyone had an equal chance, the odds of finishing 1st, 3rd (or better) and 8th (or better) in three consecutive 180 player tournaments would be 1 in 243,000. It blows my mind that whenever the courts are called on to determine if poker is a game of luck or a game of skill the judges always listen to the one moron who says it's all luck and ignores the 4 experts who say it's skill. It makes me sick.

I actually managed to cash in 3 other tournaments of different styles including finishing 60th out of 1370 in a $55 tournament. This is all good for my confidence (and my bankroll) as we get closer to the WCOOP which starts on Friday. I know it's been a few weeks since my last post and I've been posting less often, but I'll be putting up plenty of details about my WCOOP results.

Today I kept the good streak rolling picking up at least another $700 (I'm still in a few multitables, but even if I go broke in all of them I'll still be ahead at least that much). Hopefully tomorrow will be another good day.

My WSOP 2023 Plans and Missions

After four and a half years working for StubHub I wrapped up my time there in March. I've been at the poker tables 3-4 days a week since...